Abstract

Simple Summary Harmful algal blooms present a particular risk for marine ecosystems and human health alike. In this sense, it is important to accurately predict how toxin-producing microalgae could be affected by future climate change. The present study applied species distribution models (SDMs) to project the potential changes in the habitat suitability and distribution of three key paralytic shellfish toxin (PST)-producing dinoflagellate species (i.e., Alexandrium catenella, A. minutum, and Gymnodinium catenatum), up to 2040/50 and 2090/2100, across four different greenhouse gas emission scenarios, and using four abiotic predictors (i.e., sea surface temperature, salinity, current velocity, and bathymetry). In general, considerable contractions were observed for all three species in the lower latitudes of their distribution, together with projected expansions into higher latitudes, particularly in the Northern Hemisphere. This study aims to entice further research on the future biogeographical impacts of climate change in toxin-producing microalgae species while, at the same time, helping to advise the correct environmental management of coastal habitats and ecosystems. Abstract Toxin-producing microalgae present a significant environmental risk for ecosystems and human societies when they reach concentrations that affect other aquatic organisms or human health. Harmful algal blooms (HAB) have been linked to mass wildlife die-offs and human food poisoning episodes, and climate change has the potential to alter the frequency, magnitude, and geographical extent of such events. Thus, a framework of species distribution models (SDMs), employing MaxEnt modeling, was used to project changes in habitat suitability and distribution of three key paralytic shellfish toxin (PST)-producing dinoflagellate species (i.e., Alexandrium catenella, A. minutum, and Gymnodinium catenatum), up to 2050 and 2100, across four representative concentration pathway scenarios (RCP-2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5; CMIP5). Despite slightly different responses at the regional level, the global habitat suitability has decreased for all the species, leading to an overall contraction in their tropical and sub-tropical ranges, while considerable expansions are projected in higher latitudes, particularly in the Northern Hemisphere, suggesting poleward distributional shifts. Such trends were exacerbated with increasing RCP severity. Yet, further research is required, with a greater assemblage of environmental predictors and improved occurrence datasets, to gain a more holistic understanding of the potential impacts of climate change on PST-producing species.